上海管理论坛第512期

题目：Understanding the Impact of Trade Policy Effect Uncertainty on Firm-level Innovation Investment（贸易政策不确定性对企业创新投资的影响）

演讲人：陈其，美国贝勒大学商学院讲席教授

主持人：于晓宇，8188威尼斯娱人城管理学院教授

时间：2024年3月19（周二），15:00

地点：8188威尼斯娱人城校本部东区1号楼管理学院420会议室

主办单位：8188威尼斯娱人城管理学院、上海企业创新与高质量发展研究中心（上海市软科学研究基地）、中国科学学与科技政策研究会企业创新与产业政策专委会、上海市行为科学学会、“数字创新管理与治理”重点创新团队

演讲人简介：

陈其（Daniel Q. Chen）教授任美国贝勒大学Randall W. and Sandra Ferguson Endowed Professor讲席教授。他的学术研究领域主要集中在数字战略与领导力，创新管理，新兴技术的社会与经济影响等。他的著作发表在多个管理学顶级期刊，包括Information Systems Research, Journal of Operations Management, Journal of the Association for Information Systems，Journal of Management Information System，Management Information System Quarterly等。

陈其教授现任Journal of AIS的Senior Editor，以及Journal of Operations Management和Decision Sciences的Associate Editor。

演讲内容简介：

Drawing on real options and resource dependence theories, this study examines how firms adjust their innovation investments to address trade policy effect uncertainty (TPEU), a type of firm specific, perceived environmental uncertainty capturing managers’ difficulty in predicting impacts of potential policy changes on business operations. We apply BERT, an advanced deep learning technique, to analyze the texts of mandatory management discussion and analysis sections of annual reports from 3181 publicly listed Chinese firms spanning the years 2007 to 2019. The econometric analyses show that firms experiencing higher TPEU will reduce innovation investments. This effect is stronger for firms facing lower competition, involving more foreign sales, and not owned by the state. These findings provide clarity on previously inconclusive results by showcasing the significant influence of policy effect uncertainty, as opposed to state uncertainty, on firms' decisions regarding innovation investments.

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